TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Appleton City | Midway |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-1 | 3-0 |
| PF / GAME | 36.6 | 42.8 |
| PA / GAME | 25.4 | 15.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | +15.7 | +35.0 |
| SOS | +3.9 | -20.3 |
| POWER | +17.0 | +27.9 |
APPLETON CITY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Appleton City finished the job, as Appleton City and Midway finished 64-26. MOFO's pick of Midway missed; the model had projected a 25-35 final.
The actual margin was 38 points versus MOFO's 9.8-point projection. That produced a 47.8-point margin error, with score errors of 39.0 for Appleton City and 8.8 for Midway.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD MIDWAY
MOFO leans toward Midway because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 10.9-point power-rating advantage and projects a 9.8-point margin, with Midway carrying a 79% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Midway enters at 42.8 points per game compared with 36.6 for Appleton City. Midway also allows 10.4 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -20.3 for Midway and +3.9 for Appleton City. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Midway owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Appleton City has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 10.9-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.