TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Marshall | Mexico |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| PF / GAME | 23.6 | 22.8 |
| PA / GAME | 31.0 | 21.6 |
| AVG MARGIN | -11.7 | +2.0 |
| SOS | +3.5 | +2.7 |
| POWER | -10.5 | +3.0 |
MEXICO WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Mexico finished the job, as Marshall and Mexico finished 8-40. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 21-28 final.
The actual margin was 32 points versus MOFO's 7.2-point projection. That produced a 24.8-point margin error, with score errors of 13.1 for Marshall and 11.7 for Mexico.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD MEXICO
MOFO leans toward Mexico because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 13.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 7.2-point margin, with Mexico carrying a 72% win probability.
Marshall actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Mexico also allows 9.4 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +2.7 for Mexico and +3.5 for Marshall. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Marshall owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Marshall has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 13.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.