TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Northwest (Cedar Hill) | Mehlville |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-0 | 0-3 |
| PF / GAME | 28.9 | 21.4 |
| PA / GAME | 19.8 | 41.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | +14.7 | -28.0 |
| SOS | +2.7 | +5.5 |
| POWER | +15.7 | -26.1 |
NORTHWEST (CEDAR HILL) WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Northwest (Cedar Hill) finished the job, as Northwest (Cedar Hill) and Mehlville finished 35-6. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 40-16 final.
The actual margin was 29 points versus MOFO's 23.6-point projection. That produced a 5.4-point margin error, with score errors of 4.7 for Northwest (Cedar Hill) and 10.2 for Mehlville.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD NORTHWEST (CEDAR HILL)
MOFO leans toward Northwest (Cedar Hill) because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 41.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 23.6-point margin, with Northwest (Cedar Hill) carrying a 95% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Northwest (Cedar Hill) enters at 28.9 points per game compared with 21.4 for Mehlville. Northwest (Cedar Hill) also allows 22.0 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +2.7 for Northwest (Cedar Hill) and +5.5 for Mehlville. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Northwest (Cedar Hill) owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Mehlville has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 41.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.