TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Cassville | McDonald County |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-0 | 1-2 |
| PF / GAME | 34.8 | 24.4 |
| PA / GAME | 19.6 | 29.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | +22.3 | -8.3 |
| SOS | -7.8 | +0.7 |
| POWER | +19.6 | -8.1 |
CASSVILLE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Cassville finished the job, as Cassville and McDonald County finished 54-13. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 35-19 final.
The actual margin was 41 points versus MOFO's 16.0-point projection. That produced a 25.0-point margin error, with score errors of 19.0 for Cassville and 6.0 for McDonald County.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD CASSVILLE
MOFO leans toward Cassville because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 27.7-point power-rating advantage and projects a 16.0-point margin, with Cassville carrying a 89% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Cassville enters at 34.8 points per game compared with 24.4 for McDonald County. Cassville also allows 9.8 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -7.8 for Cassville and +0.7 for McDonald County. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Cassville owns the stronger scoring profile.
02McDonald County has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 27.7-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.