TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Van-Far | Mark Twain |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| PF / GAME | 16.2 | 17.8 |
| PA / GAME | 35.4 | 25.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | -29.3 | -9.0 |
| SOS | +17.4 | -5.7 |
| POWER | -23.2 | -11.0 |
VAN-FAR WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Van-Far finished the job, as Van-Far and Mark Twain finished 38-34. MOFO's pick of Mark Twain missed; the model had projected a 20-28 final.
The actual margin was 4 points versus MOFO's 7.5-point projection. That produced a 11.5-point margin error, with score errors of 18.0 for Van-Far and 6.5 for Mark Twain.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD MARK TWAIN
MOFO leans toward Mark Twain because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 12.3-point power-rating advantage and projects a 7.5-point margin, with Mark Twain carrying a 73% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Mark Twain enters at 17.8 points per game compared with 16.2 for Van-Far. Mark Twain also allows 9.6 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -5.7 for Mark Twain and +17.4 for Van-Far. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Mark Twain owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Van-Far has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 12.3-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.