TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Palmyra | Macon |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| PF / GAME | 39.2 | 29.2 |
| PA / GAME | 22.4 | 22.2 |
| AVG MARGIN | +21.7 | +9.3 |
| SOS | -1.6 | +8.3 |
| POWER | +21.1 | +12.2 |
MACON WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Macon finished the job, as Palmyra and Macon finished 7-35. MOFO's pick of Palmyra missed; the model had projected a 31-25 final.
The actual margin was 28 points versus MOFO's 6.5-point projection. That produced a 34.5-point margin error, with score errors of 24.5 for Palmyra and 10.0 for Macon.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD PALMYRA
MOFO leans toward Palmyra because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 8.9-point power-rating advantage and projects a 6.5-point margin, with Palmyra carrying a 70% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Palmyra enters at 39.2 points per game compared with 29.2 for Macon. Macon's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at -1.6 for Palmyra and +8.3 for Macon. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Palmyra owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Macon has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 8.9-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.