TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | East Buchanan | Lawson |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| PF / GAME | 29.8 | 25.0 |
| PA / GAME | 26.8 | 26.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | +5.0 | -3.0 |
| SOS | +0.6 | +4.6 |
| POWER | +5.2 | -1.4 |
EAST BUCHANAN WRITES THE FINAL WORD
East Buchanan finished the job, as East Buchanan and Lawson finished 28-21. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 29-25 final.
The actual margin was 7 points versus MOFO's 3.7-point projection. That produced a 3.3-point margin error, with score errors of 0.9 for East Buchanan and 4.2 for Lawson.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD EAST BUCHANAN
MOFO leans toward East Buchanan because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 6.6-point power-rating advantage and projects a 3.7-point margin, with East Buchanan carrying a 62% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: East Buchanan enters at 29.8 points per game compared with 25.0 for Lawson. Lawson's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +0.6 for East Buchanan and +4.6 for Lawson. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01East Buchanan owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Lawson has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 6.6-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.