TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | East Newton | Lamar |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-2 | 3-0 |
| PF / GAME | 20.2 | 33.2 |
| PA / GAME | 35.8 | 18.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | -23.0 | +23.7 |
| SOS | +9.4 | -8.2 |
| POWER | -19.7 | +20.8 |
LAMAR WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Lamar finished the job, as East Newton and Lamar finished 0-52. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 15-39 final.
The actual margin was 52 points versus MOFO's 23.4-point projection. That produced a 28.6-point margin error, with score errors of 15.3 for East Newton and 13.3 for Lamar.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD LAMAR
MOFO leans toward Lamar because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 40.5-point power-rating advantage and projects a 23.4-point margin, with Lamar carrying a 95% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Lamar enters at 33.2 points per game compared with 20.2 for East Newton. Lamar also allows 17.0 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -8.2 for Lamar and +9.4 for East Newton. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Lamar owns the stronger scoring profile.
02East Newton has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 40.5-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.