TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Lone Jack with Kingsville | Lafayette County |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| PF / GAME | 19.2 | 23.6 |
| PA / GAME | 28.6 | 33.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | -15.3 | -15.7 |
| SOS | +4.1 | +15.0 |
| POWER | -13.9 | -10.4 |
LAFAYETTE COUNTY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Lafayette County finished the job, as Lone Jack with Kingsville and Lafayette County finished 0-58. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 25-27 final.
The actual margin was 58 points versus MOFO's 1.2-point projection. That produced a 56.8-point margin error, with score errors of 25.5 for Lone Jack with Kingsville and 31.3 for Lafayette County.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD LAFAYETTE COUNTY
MOFO leans toward Lafayette County because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 3.5-point power-rating advantage and projects a 1.2-point margin, with Lafayette County carrying a 54% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Lafayette County enters at 23.6 points per game compared with 19.2 for Lone Jack with Kingsville. Lone Jack with Kingsville's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +15.0 for Lafayette County and +4.1 for Lone Jack with Kingsville. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Lafayette County owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Lafayette County has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 3.5-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.