TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Lindbergh | Lafayette (Wildwood) |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-3 | 2-1 |
| PF / GAME | 19.8 | 26.2 |
| PA / GAME | 25.0 | 24.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | -8.7 | +3.0 |
| SOS | +9.8 | +5.8 |
| POWER | -5.2 | +5.0 |
LINDBERGH WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Lindbergh finished the job, as Lindbergh and Lafayette (Wildwood) finished 28-27. MOFO's pick of Lafayette (Wildwood) missed; the model had projected a 21-27 final.
The actual margin was 1 points versus MOFO's 5.7-point projection. That produced a 6.7-point margin error, with score errors of 7.0 for Lindbergh and 0.3 for Lafayette (Wildwood).
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD LAFAYETTE (WILDWOOD)
MOFO leans toward Lafayette (Wildwood) because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 10.3-point power-rating advantage and projects a 5.7-point margin, with Lafayette (Wildwood) carrying a 68% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Lafayette (Wildwood) enters at 26.2 points per game compared with 19.8 for Lindbergh. Lafayette (Wildwood) also allows 0.6 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +5.8 for Lafayette (Wildwood) and +9.8 for Lindbergh. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Lafayette (Wildwood) owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Lindbergh has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 10.3-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.