TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Marquette | Kirkwood |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| PF / GAME | 27.0 | 40.6 |
| PA / GAME | 23.9 | 22.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | +10.2 | +28.4 |
| SOS | +0.8 | -7.5 |
| POWER | +10.5 | +25.8 |
KIRKWOOD WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Kirkwood finished the job, as Marquette and Kirkwood finished 21-52. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 23-34 final.
The actual margin was 31 points versus MOFO's 10.7-point projection. That produced a 20.3-point margin error, with score errors of 2.1 for Marquette and 18.2 for Kirkwood.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD KIRKWOOD
MOFO leans toward Kirkwood because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 15.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 10.7-point margin, with Kirkwood carrying a 81% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Kirkwood enters at 40.6 points per game compared with 27.0 for Marquette. Kirkwood also allows 1.5 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -7.5 for Kirkwood and +0.8 for Marquette. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Kirkwood owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Marquette has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 15.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.