TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Schuyler County | Keytesville |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| PF / GAME | 25.8 | 19.8 |
| PA / GAME | 46.6 | 38.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | -20.7 | -24.3 |
| SOS | +5.7 | -2.0 |
| POWER | -18.7 | -25.0 |
SCHUYLER COUNTY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Schuyler County finished the job, as Schuyler County and Keytesville finished 48-22. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 33-32 final.
The actual margin was 26 points versus MOFO's 0.6-point projection. That produced a 25.4-point margin error, with score errors of 15.1 for Schuyler County and 10.3 for Keytesville.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD SCHUYLER COUNTY
MOFO leans toward Schuyler County because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 6.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 0.6-point margin, with Schuyler County carrying a 52% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Schuyler County enters at 25.8 points per game compared with 19.8 for Keytesville. Keytesville's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +5.7 for Schuyler County and -2.0 for Keytesville. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Schuyler County owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Schuyler County has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 6.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.