TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Kelly | Kennett |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| PF / GAME | 34.2 | 30.0 |
| PA / GAME | 24.8 | 29.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | +15.7 | +1.3 |
| SOS | -19.9 | +0.1 |
| POWER | +8.7 | +1.4 |
KENNETT WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Kennett finished the job, as Kelly and Kennett finished 0-39. MOFO's pick of Kelly missed; the model had projected a 32-27 final.
The actual margin was 39 points versus MOFO's 5.4-point projection. That produced a 44.4-point margin error, with score errors of 32.4 for Kelly and 12.0 for Kennett.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD KELLY
MOFO leans toward Kelly because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 7.3-point power-rating advantage and projects a 5.4-point margin, with Kelly carrying a 67% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Kelly enters at 34.2 points per game compared with 30.0 for Kennett. Kelly also allows 5.0 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -19.9 for Kelly and +0.1 for Kennett. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Kelly owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Kennett has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 7.3-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.