TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Waynesville | Joplin |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| PF / GAME | 21.4 | 25.6 |
| PA / GAME | 38.6 | 25.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | -26.0 | -0.3 |
| SOS | +7.7 | -6.2 |
| POWER | -23.3 | -2.5 |
JOPLIN WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Joplin finished the job, as Waynesville and Joplin finished 14-35. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 22-34 final.
The actual margin was 21 points versus MOFO's 12.6-point projection. That produced a 8.4-point margin error, with score errors of 7.5 for Waynesville and 0.9 for Joplin.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD JOPLIN
MOFO leans toward Joplin because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 20.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 12.6-point margin, with Joplin carrying a 84% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Joplin enters at 25.6 points per game compared with 21.4 for Waynesville. Joplin also allows 12.8 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -6.2 for Joplin and +7.7 for Waynesville. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Joplin owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Waynesville has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 20.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.