TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Smith-Cotton | Jefferson City |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| PF / GAME | 23.0 | 28.0 |
| PA / GAME | 34.6 | 34.6 |
| AVG MARGIN | -18.7 | -11.0 |
| SOS | +11.0 | +4.9 |
| POWER | -14.8 | -9.3 |
SMITH-COTTON WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Smith-Cotton finished the job, as Smith-Cotton and Jefferson City finished 43-36. MOFO's pick of Jefferson City missed; the model had projected a 28-32 final.
The actual margin was 7 points versus MOFO's 3.5-point projection. That produced a 10.5-point margin error, with score errors of 14.7 for Smith-Cotton and 4.2 for Jefferson City.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD JEFFERSON CITY
MOFO leans toward Jefferson City because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 5.5-point power-rating advantage and projects a 3.5-point margin, with Jefferson City carrying a 61% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Jefferson City enters at 28.0 points per game compared with 23.0 for Smith-Cotton. Smith-Cotton's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +4.9 for Jefferson City and +11.0 for Smith-Cotton. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Jefferson City owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Smith-Cotton has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 5.5-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.