TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Cuba with Steelville | Jefferson (Festus) |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| PF / GAME | 33.4 | 22.4 |
| PA / GAME | 23.4 | 26.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | +16.3 | -6.0 |
| SOS | -16.3 | -5.3 |
| POWER | +10.6 | -7.8 |
JEFFERSON (FESTUS) WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Jefferson (Festus) finished the job, as Cuba with Steelville and Jefferson (Festus) finished 0-27. MOFO's pick of Cuba with Steelville missed; the model had projected a 32-21 final.
The actual margin was 27 points versus MOFO's 10.5-point projection. That produced a 37.5-point margin error, with score errors of 31.5 for Cuba with Steelville and 6.0 for Jefferson (Festus).
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD CUBA WITH STEELVILLE
MOFO leans toward Cuba with Steelville because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 18.5-point power-rating advantage and projects a 10.5-point margin, with Cuba with Steelville carrying a 80% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Cuba with Steelville enters at 33.4 points per game compared with 22.4 for Jefferson (Festus). Cuba with Steelville also allows 2.6 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -16.3 for Cuba with Steelville and -5.3 for Jefferson (Festus). Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Cuba with Steelville owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Jefferson (Festus) has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 18.5-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.