TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | St. Mary's South Side | Jackson |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-1 | 3-0 |
| PF / GAME | 21.6 | 38.6 |
| PA / GAME | 26.2 | 15.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | -7.7 | +34.7 |
| SOS | +10.5 | -16.6 |
| POWER | -4.0 | +28.8 |
JACKSON WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Jackson finished the job, as St. Mary's South Side and Jackson finished 7-42. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 15-35 final.
The actual margin was 35 points versus MOFO's 20.3-point projection. That produced a 14.7-point margin error, with score errors of 8.2 for St. Mary's South Side and 6.5 for Jackson.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD JACKSON
MOFO leans toward Jackson because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 32.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 20.3-point margin, with Jackson carrying a 94% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Jackson enters at 38.6 points per game compared with 21.6 for St. Mary's South Side. Jackson also allows 11.2 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -16.6 for Jackson and +10.5 for St. Mary's South Side. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Jackson owns the stronger scoring profile.
02St. Mary's South Side has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 32.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.