TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Cabool | Houston |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| PF / GAME | 16.2 | 27.6 |
| PA / GAME | 36.8 | 30.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | -21.7 | -5.3 |
| SOS | +6.3 | +11.3 |
| POWER | -19.5 | -1.4 |
HOUSTON WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Houston finished the job, as Cabool and Houston finished 7-56. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 21-34 final.
The actual margin was 49 points versus MOFO's 12.9-point projection. That produced a 36.1-point margin error, with score errors of 14.4 for Cabool and 21.7 for Houston.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD HOUSTON
MOFO leans toward Houston because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 18.1-point power-rating advantage and projects a 12.9-point margin, with Houston carrying a 85% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Houston enters at 27.6 points per game compared with 16.2 for Cabool. Houston also allows 6.0 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +11.3 for Houston and +6.3 for Cabool. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Houston owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Houston has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 18.1-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.