TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Buffalo | Hollister |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-1 | 0-3 |
| PF / GAME | 37.2 | 18.4 |
| PA / GAME | 27.2 | 40.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | +14.7 | -28.7 |
| SOS | -10.1 | +12.8 |
| POWER | +11.1 | -24.2 |
BUFFALO WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Buffalo finished the job, as Buffalo and Hollister finished 56-22. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 42-19 final.
The actual margin was 34 points versus MOFO's 22.9-point projection. That produced a 11.1-point margin error, with score errors of 13.8 for Buffalo and 2.7 for Hollister.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD BUFFALO
MOFO leans toward Buffalo because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 35.3-point power-rating advantage and projects a 22.9-point margin, with Buffalo carrying a 95% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Buffalo enters at 37.2 points per game compared with 18.4 for Hollister. Buffalo also allows 13.2 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -10.1 for Buffalo and +12.8 for Hollister. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Buffalo owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Hollister has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 35.3-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.