TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | North County | Hillsboro |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-2 | 3-0 |
| PF / GAME | 21.2 | 38.6 |
| PA / GAME | 33.2 | 18.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | -16.7 | +30.7 |
| SOS | +13.4 | -5.7 |
| POWER | -12.0 | +28.7 |
HILLSBORO WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Hillsboro finished the job, as North County and Hillsboro finished 13-45. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 16-40 final.
The actual margin was 32 points versus MOFO's 24.6-point projection. That produced a 7.4-point margin error, with score errors of 2.6 for North County and 4.8 for Hillsboro.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD HILLSBORO
MOFO leans toward Hillsboro because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 40.6-point power-rating advantage and projects a 24.6-point margin, with Hillsboro carrying a 95% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Hillsboro enters at 38.6 points per game compared with 21.2 for North County. Hillsboro also allows 14.4 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -5.7 for Hillsboro and +13.4 for North County. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Hillsboro owns the stronger scoring profile.
02North County has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 40.6-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.