TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Centralia | Hermann |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-0 | 0-3 |
| PF / GAME | 39.8 | 12.2 |
| PA / GAME | 20.6 | 36.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | +29.0 | -33.3 |
| SOS | -5.4 | +2.0 |
| POWER | +27.1 | -32.6 |
CENTRALIA WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Centralia finished the job, as Centralia and Hermann finished 54-14. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 44-10 final.
The actual margin was 40 points versus MOFO's 34.4-point projection. That produced a 5.6-point margin error, with score errors of 9.7 for Centralia and 4.1 for Hermann.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD CENTRALIA
MOFO leans toward Centralia because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 59.7-point power-rating advantage and projects a 34.4-point margin, with Centralia carrying a 95% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Centralia enters at 39.8 points per game compared with 12.2 for Hermann. Centralia also allows 15.4 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -5.4 for Centralia and +2.0 for Hermann. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Centralia owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Hermann has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 59.7-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.