TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Ritenour | Hazelwood East |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| PF / GAME | 26.0 | 16.6 |
| PA / GAME | 32.6 | 29.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | -8.0 | -22.0 |
| SOS | +13.9 | +13.3 |
| POWER | -3.1 | -17.3 |
RITENOUR WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Ritenour finished the job, as Ritenour and Hazelwood East finished 32-24. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 29-23 final.
The actual margin was 8 points versus MOFO's 6.0-point projection. That produced a 2.0-point margin error, with score errors of 2.8 for Ritenour and 0.8 for Hazelwood East.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD RITENOUR
MOFO leans toward Ritenour because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 14.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 6.0-point margin, with Ritenour carrying a 69% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Ritenour enters at 26.0 points per game compared with 16.6 for Hazelwood East. Hazelwood East's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +13.9 for Ritenour and +13.3 for Hazelwood East. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Ritenour owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Ritenour has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 14.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.