TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Portageville | Hayti |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-0 | 2-1 |
| PF / GAME | 44.2 | 37.0 |
| PA / GAME | 23.4 | 22.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | +28.0 | +11.7 |
| SOS | -12.4 | -1.2 |
| POWER | +23.7 | +11.2 |
HAYTI WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Hayti finished the job, as Portageville and Hayti finished 34-36. MOFO's pick of Portageville missed; the model had projected a 34-29 final.
The actual margin was 2 points versus MOFO's 5.2-point projection. That produced a 7.2-point margin error, with score errors of 0.2 for Portageville and 7.0 for Hayti.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD PORTAGEVILLE
MOFO leans toward Portageville because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 12.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 5.2-point margin, with Portageville carrying a 67% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Portageville enters at 44.2 points per game compared with 37.0 for Hayti. Hayti's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at -12.4 for Portageville and -1.2 for Hayti. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Portageville owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Hayti has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 12.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.