TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Orrick | Hardin-Central |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-1 | 3-0 |
| PF / GAME | 32.2 | 46.6 |
| PA / GAME | 25.8 | 31.6 |
| AVG MARGIN | +10.7 | +24.3 |
| SOS | -14.4 | +9.5 |
| POWER | +5.6 | +27.7 |
HARDIN-CENTRAL WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Hardin-Central finished the job, as Orrick and Hardin-Central finished 12-48. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 29-39 final.
The actual margin was 36 points versus MOFO's 10.0-point projection. That produced a 26.0-point margin error, with score errors of 17.0 for Orrick and 9.0 for Hardin-Central.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD HARDIN-CENTRAL
MOFO leans toward Hardin-Central because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 22.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 10.0-point margin, with Hardin-Central carrying a 79% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Hardin-Central enters at 46.6 points per game compared with 32.2 for Orrick. Orrick's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +9.5 for Hardin-Central and -14.4 for Orrick. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Hardin-Central owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Hardin-Central has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 22.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.