TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Kirksville | Hannibal |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| PF / GAME | 17.2 | 23.8 |
| PA / GAME | 27.0 | 32.6 |
| AVG MARGIN | -16.3 | -14.7 |
| SOS | +9.5 | +14.7 |
| POWER | -13.0 | -9.5 |
HANNIBAL WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Hannibal finished the job, as Kirksville and Hannibal finished 0-26. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 24-26 final.
The actual margin was 26 points versus MOFO's 1.7-point projection. That produced a 24.3-point margin error, with score errors of 24.3 for Kirksville and 0.0 for Hannibal.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD HANNIBAL
MOFO leans toward Hannibal because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 3.5-point power-rating advantage and projects a 1.7-point margin, with Hannibal carrying a 56% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Hannibal enters at 23.8 points per game compared with 17.2 for Kirksville. Kirksville's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +14.7 for Hannibal and +9.5 for Kirksville. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Hannibal owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Hannibal has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 3.5-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.