TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Lockwood | Greenfield |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-0 | 2-0 |
| PF / GAME | 52.4 | 47.3 |
| PA / GAME | 31.0 | 41.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | +30.7 | +16.4 |
| SOS | +1.0 | -8.8 |
| POWER | +31.0 | +13.3 |
LOCKWOOD WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Lockwood finished the job, as Lockwood and Greenfield finished 70-22. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 49-37 final.
The actual margin was 48 points versus MOFO's 12.0-point projection. That produced a 36.0-point margin error, with score errors of 21.0 for Lockwood and 15.0 for Greenfield.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD LOCKWOOD
MOFO leans toward Lockwood because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 17.7-point power-rating advantage and projects a 12.0-point margin, with Lockwood carrying a 83% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Lockwood enters at 52.4 points per game compared with 47.3 for Greenfield. Lockwood also allows 10.4 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +1.0 for Lockwood and -8.8 for Greenfield. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Lockwood owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Lockwood has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 17.7-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.