TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Raytown | Grain Valley |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-0 | 2-1 |
| PF / GAME | 37.0 | 26.8 |
| PA / GAME | 16.6 | 26.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | +22.0 | +1.7 |
| SOS | -18.0 | +0.7 |
| POWER | +15.7 | +1.9 |
RAYTOWN WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Raytown finished the job, as Raytown and Grain Valley finished 24-22. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 33-20 final.
The actual margin was 2 points versus MOFO's 12.4-point projection. That produced a 10.4-point margin error, with score errors of 8.9 for Raytown and 1.5 for Grain Valley.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD RAYTOWN
MOFO leans toward Raytown because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 13.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 12.4-point margin, with Raytown carrying a 84% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Raytown enters at 37.0 points per game compared with 26.8 for Grain Valley. Raytown also allows 9.8 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -18.0 for Raytown and +0.7 for Grain Valley. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Raytown owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Grain Valley has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 13.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.