TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Francis Howell | Ft. Zumwalt West |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| PF / GAME | 25.8 | 25.0 |
| PA / GAME | 28.8 | 33.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | -2.7 | -11.7 |
| SOS | +1.8 | -0.0 |
| POWER | -2.0 | -11.7 |
FRANCIS HOWELL WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Francis Howell finished the job, as Francis Howell and Ft. Zumwalt West finished 31-7. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 30-26 final.
The actual margin was 24 points versus MOFO's 4.7-point projection. That produced a 19.3-point margin error, with score errors of 0.5 for Francis Howell and 18.8 for Ft. Zumwalt West.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD FRANCIS HOWELL
MOFO leans toward Francis Howell because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 9.6-point power-rating advantage and projects a 4.7-point margin, with Francis Howell carrying a 65% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Francis Howell enters at 25.8 points per game compared with 25.0 for Ft. Zumwalt West. Francis Howell also allows 4.2 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +1.8 for Francis Howell and -0.0 for Ft. Zumwalt West. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Francis Howell owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Francis Howell has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 9.6-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.