TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Valle Catholic | Fredericktown |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-0 | 2-1 |
| PF / GAME | 41.6 | 21.0 |
| PA / GAME | 16.6 | 18.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | +35.0 | +5.0 |
| SOS | +1.6 | -0.9 |
| POWER | +35.5 | +4.7 |
VALLE CATHOLIC WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Valle Catholic finished the job, as Valle Catholic and Fredericktown finished 67-14. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 33-15 final.
The actual margin was 53 points versus MOFO's 17.9-point projection. That produced a 35.1-point margin error, with score errors of 33.8 for Valle Catholic and 1.3 for Fredericktown.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD VALLE CATHOLIC
MOFO leans toward Valle Catholic because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 30.9-point power-rating advantage and projects a 17.9-point margin, with Valle Catholic carrying a 92% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Valle Catholic enters at 41.6 points per game compared with 21.0 for Fredericktown. Valle Catholic also allows 1.4 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +1.6 for Valle Catholic and -0.9 for Fredericktown. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Valle Catholic owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Valle Catholic has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 30.9-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.