TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | William Chrisman | Fort Osage |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-1 | 0-3 |
| PF / GAME | 25.8 | 25.2 |
| PA / GAME | 24.0 | 29.2 |
| AVG MARGIN | +0.3 | -6.7 |
| SOS | -3.3 | +2.3 |
| POWER | -0.8 | -5.9 |
FORT OSAGE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Fort Osage finished the job, as William Chrisman and Fort Osage finished 8-43. MOFO's pick of William Chrisman missed; the model had projected a 28-24 final.
The actual margin was 35 points versus MOFO's 3.8-point projection. That produced a 38.8-point margin error, with score errors of 19.9 for William Chrisman and 18.9 for Fort Osage.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD WILLIAM CHRISMAN
MOFO leans toward William Chrisman because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 5.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 3.8-point margin, with William Chrisman carrying a 62% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: William Chrisman enters at 25.8 points per game compared with 25.2 for Fort Osage. William Chrisman also allows 5.2 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -3.3 for William Chrisman and +2.3 for Fort Osage. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01William Chrisman owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Fort Osage has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 5.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.