TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Springfield Catholic | Forsyth |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-0 | 0-3 |
| PF / GAME | 35.0 | 21.2 |
| PA / GAME | 21.0 | 26.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | +21.0 | -9.3 |
| SOS | -12.6 | -2.3 |
| POWER | +16.6 | -10.1 |
SPRINGFIELD CATHOLIC WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Springfield Catholic finished the job, as Springfield Catholic and Forsyth finished 48-28. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 34-18 final.
The actual margin was 20 points versus MOFO's 15.3-point projection. That produced a 4.7-point margin error, with score errors of 14.4 for Springfield Catholic and 9.7 for Forsyth.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD SPRINGFIELD CATHOLIC
MOFO leans toward Springfield Catholic because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 26.7-point power-rating advantage and projects a 15.3-point margin, with Springfield Catholic carrying a 88% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Springfield Catholic enters at 35.0 points per game compared with 21.2 for Forsyth. Springfield Catholic also allows 5.8 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -12.6 for Springfield Catholic and -2.3 for Forsyth. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Springfield Catholic owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Forsyth has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 26.7-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.