TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | DeSoto | Festus |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| PF / GAME | 27.6 | 29.6 |
| PA / GAME | 27.2 | 22.6 |
| AVG MARGIN | +0.7 | +9.7 |
| SOS | +1.0 | -0.7 |
| POWER | +1.0 | +9.4 |
FESTUS WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Festus finished the job, as DeSoto and Festus finished 8-36. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 24-29 final.
The actual margin was 28 points versus MOFO's 5.1-point projection. That produced a 22.9-point margin error, with score errors of 16.2 for DeSoto and 6.7 for Festus.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD FESTUS
MOFO leans toward Festus because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 8.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 5.1-point margin, with Festus carrying a 66% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Festus enters at 29.6 points per game compared with 27.6 for DeSoto. Festus also allows 4.6 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -0.7 for Festus and +1.0 for DeSoto. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Festus owns the stronger scoring profile.
02DeSoto has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 8.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.