TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Maryville | Excelsior Springs |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-0 | 0-3 |
| PF / GAME | 30.4 | 22.4 |
| PA / GAME | 17.8 | 35.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | +21.0 | -21.7 |
| SOS | +0.5 | +9.5 |
| POWER | +21.2 | -18.4 |
MARYVILLE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Maryville finished the job, as Maryville and Excelsior Springs finished 46-7. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 37-16 final.
The actual margin was 39 points versus MOFO's 21.2-point projection. That produced a 17.8-point margin error, with score errors of 8.9 for Maryville and 8.9 for Excelsior Springs.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD MARYVILLE
MOFO leans toward Maryville because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 39.5-point power-rating advantage and projects a 21.2-point margin, with Maryville carrying a 94% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Maryville enters at 30.4 points per game compared with 22.4 for Excelsior Springs. Maryville also allows 17.6 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +0.5 for Maryville and +9.5 for Excelsior Springs. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Maryville owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Excelsior Springs has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 39.5-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.