TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Fulton | Eldon |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| PF / GAME | 16.2 | 16.4 |
| PA / GAME | 30.4 | 31.2 |
| AVG MARGIN | -21.7 | -19.7 |
| SOS | +4.6 | +4.1 |
| POWER | -20.1 | -18.2 |
FULTON WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Fulton finished the job, as Fulton and Eldon finished 46-14. MOFO's pick of Eldon missed; the model had projected a 23-24 final.
The actual margin was 32 points versus MOFO's 0.1-point projection. That produced a 32.1-point margin error, with score errors of 22.5 for Fulton and 9.6 for Eldon.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD ELDON
MOFO leans toward Eldon because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 1.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 0.1-point margin, with Eldon carrying a 50% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Eldon enters at 16.4 points per game compared with 16.2 for Fulton. Fulton's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +4.1 for Eldon and +4.6 for Fulton. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Eldon owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Fulton has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 1.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.