TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Lighthouse Sr. High | El Dorado Springs |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-2 | 1-2 |
| PF / GAME | 17.9 | 25.4 |
| PA / GAME | 29.9 | 26.2 |
| AVG MARGIN | -20.5 | -6.0 |
| SOS | +16.4 | -1.5 |
| POWER | -14.7 | -6.5 |
LIGHTHOUSE SR. HIGH WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Lighthouse Sr. High finished the job, as Lighthouse Sr. High and El Dorado Springs finished 46-8. MOFO's pick of El Dorado Springs missed; the model had projected a 21-28 final.
The actual margin was 38 points versus MOFO's 6.8-point projection. That produced a 44.8-point margin error, with score errors of 24.5 for Lighthouse Sr. High and 20.2 for El Dorado Springs.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD EL DORADO SPRINGS
MOFO leans toward El Dorado Springs because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 8.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 6.8-point margin, with El Dorado Springs carrying a 71% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: El Dorado Springs enters at 25.4 points per game compared with 17.9 for Lighthouse Sr. High. El Dorado Springs also allows 3.7 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -1.5 for El Dorado Springs and +16.4 for Lighthouse Sr. High. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01El Dorado Springs owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Lighthouse Sr. High has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 8.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.