TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Archie | Drexel |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| PF / GAME | 45.4 | 25.0 |
| PA / GAME | 28.4 | 26.6 |
| AVG MARGIN | +11.7 | -1.3 |
| SOS | -4.4 | -3.9 |
| POWER | +10.1 | -2.7 |
ARCHIE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Archie finished the job, as Archie and Drexel finished 60-6. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 37-25 final.
The actual margin was 54 points versus MOFO's 12.1-point projection. That produced a 41.9-point margin error, with score errors of 22.6 for Archie and 19.3 for Drexel.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD ARCHIE
MOFO leans toward Archie because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 12.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 12.1-point margin, with Archie carrying a 83% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Archie enters at 45.4 points per game compared with 25.0 for Drexel. Drexel's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at -4.4 for Archie and -3.9 for Drexel. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Archie owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Drexel has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 12.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.