TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Doniphan | Dexter |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| PF / GAME | 24.6 | 21.4 |
| PA / GAME | 20.6 | 28.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | +6.7 | -11.7 |
| SOS | -22.3 | +2.8 |
| POWER | -1.1 | -10.7 |
DEXTER WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Dexter finished the job, as Doniphan and Dexter finished 0-58. MOFO's pick of Doniphan missed; the model had projected a 27-20 final.
The actual margin was 58 points versus MOFO's 6.7-point projection. That produced a 64.7-point margin error, with score errors of 27.1 for Doniphan and 37.6 for Dexter.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD DONIPHAN
MOFO leans toward Doniphan because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 9.5-point power-rating advantage and projects a 6.7-point margin, with Doniphan carrying a 71% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Doniphan enters at 24.6 points per game compared with 21.4 for Dexter. Doniphan also allows 7.8 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -22.3 for Doniphan and +2.8 for Dexter. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Doniphan owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Dexter has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 9.5-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.