TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Chaminade College Prep | De Smet Jesuit |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| PF / GAME | 28.5 | 34.4 |
| PA / GAME | 21.6 | 32.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | +12.2 | +3.3 |
| SOS | -0.4 | -1.9 |
| POWER | +12.1 | +2.7 |
DE SMET JESUIT WRITES THE FINAL WORD
De Smet Jesuit finished the job, as Chaminade College Prep and De Smet Jesuit finished 14-62. MOFO's pick of Chaminade College Prep missed; the model had projected a 31-27 final.
The actual margin was 48 points versus MOFO's 4.6-point projection. That produced a 52.6-point margin error, with score errors of 17.5 for Chaminade College Prep and 35.1 for De Smet Jesuit.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD CHAMINADE COLLEGE PREP
MOFO leans toward Chaminade College Prep because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 9.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 4.6-point margin, with Chaminade College Prep carrying a 65% win probability.
De Smet Jesuit actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Chaminade College Prep also allows 10.8 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -0.4 for Chaminade College Prep and -1.9 for De Smet Jesuit. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01De Smet Jesuit owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Chaminade College Prep has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 9.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.