TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Confluence Prep Academy Charter | Crystal City |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| PF / GAME | 17.8 | 17.8 |
| PA / GAME | 48.8 | 35.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | -35.0 | -28.7 |
| SOS | +4.6 | -0.9 |
| POWER | -33.4 | -29.0 |
CRYSTAL CITY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Crystal City finished the job, as Confluence Prep Academy Charter and Crystal City finished 16-44. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 26-34 final.
The actual margin was 28 points versus MOFO's 7.5-point projection. That produced a 20.5-point margin error, with score errors of 10.2 for Confluence Prep Academy Charter and 10.3 for Crystal City.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD CRYSTAL CITY
MOFO leans toward Crystal City because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 4.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 7.5-point margin, with Crystal City carrying a 73% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Crystal City enters at 17.8 points per game compared with 17.8 for Confluence Prep Academy Charter. Crystal City also allows 13.4 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -0.9 for Crystal City and +4.6 for Confluence Prep Academy Charter. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Confluence Prep Academy Charter owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Confluence Prep Academy Charter has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 4.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.