CREST RIDGE WITH CHILHOWEE WRITES THE FINAL WORD

Crest Ridge with Chilhowee finished the job, as Lexington and Crest Ridge with Chilhowee finished 12-18. MOFO's pick of Lexington missed; the model had projected a 26-24 final.

The actual margin was 6 points versus MOFO's 1.5-point projection. That produced a 7.5-point margin error, with score errors of 13.9 for Lexington and 6.4 for Crest Ridge with Chilhowee.

THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD LEXINGTON

MOFO leans toward Lexington because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 2.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 1.5-point margin, with Lexington carrying a 55% win probability.

Crest Ridge with Chilhowee actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Lexington also allows 6.2 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.

Strength of schedule checks in at -0.5 for Lexington and +4.8 for Crest Ridge with Chilhowee. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.