TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Lincoln | Concordia |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| PF / GAME | 21.8 | 25.2 |
| PA / GAME | 38.2 | 21.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | -24.3 | +7.0 |
| SOS | +12.4 | -13.0 |
| POWER | -20.0 | +2.5 |
CONCORDIA WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Concordia finished the job, as Lincoln and Concordia finished 8-34. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 19-34 final.
The actual margin was 26 points versus MOFO's 14.3-point projection. That produced a 11.7-point margin error, with score errors of 11.4 for Lincoln and 0.3 for Concordia.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD CONCORDIA
MOFO leans toward Concordia because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 22.5-point power-rating advantage and projects a 14.3-point margin, with Concordia carrying a 87% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Concordia enters at 25.2 points per game compared with 21.8 for Lincoln. Concordia also allows 17.2 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -13.0 for Concordia and +12.4 for Lincoln. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Concordia owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Lincoln has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 22.5-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.