TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Holden | Clinton |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| PF / GAME | 19.0 | 24.4 |
| PA / GAME | 36.6 | 30.2 |
| AVG MARGIN | -20.7 | -7.7 |
| SOS | +14.2 | +1.5 |
| POWER | -15.7 | -7.2 |
CLINTON WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Clinton finished the job, as Holden and Clinton finished 14-57. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 24-31 final.
The actual margin was 43 points versus MOFO's 7.3-point projection. That produced a 35.7-point margin error, with score errors of 9.9 for Holden and 25.8 for Clinton.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD CLINTON
MOFO leans toward Clinton because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 8.5-point power-rating advantage and projects a 7.3-point margin, with Clinton carrying a 73% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Clinton enters at 24.4 points per game compared with 19.0 for Holden. Clinton also allows 6.4 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +1.5 for Clinton and +14.2 for Holden. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Clinton owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Holden has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 8.5-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.