TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Fair Grove | Clever |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-0 | 3-0 |
| PF / GAME | 39.2 | 26.2 |
| PA / GAME | 20.2 | 16.6 |
| AVG MARGIN | +26.3 | +16.0 |
| SOS | -7.6 | -4.9 |
| POWER | +23.7 | +14.3 |
FAIR GROVE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Fair Grove finished the job, as Fair Grove and Clever finished 27-20. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 29-22 final.
The actual margin was 7 points versus MOFO's 6.7-point projection. That produced a 0.3-point margin error, with score errors of 1.9 for Fair Grove and 2.2 for Clever.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD FAIR GROVE
MOFO leans toward Fair Grove because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 9.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 6.7-point margin, with Fair Grove carrying a 71% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Fair Grove enters at 39.2 points per game compared with 26.2 for Clever. Clever's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at -7.6 for Fair Grove and -4.9 for Clever. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Fair Grove owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Clever has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 9.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.