TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Scott City with Chaffee | Charleston |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| PF / GAME | 21.2 | 26.6 |
| PA / GAME | 35.2 | 40.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | -23.3 | -20.0 |
| SOS | +9.4 | +14.5 |
| POWER | -20.1 | -14.9 |
CHARLESTON WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Charleston finished the job, as Scott City with Chaffee and Charleston finished 27-36. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 30-32 final.
The actual margin was 9 points versus MOFO's 1.6-point projection. That produced a 7.4-point margin error, with score errors of 2.9 for Scott City with Chaffee and 4.5 for Charleston.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD CHARLESTON
MOFO leans toward Charleston because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 5.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 1.6-point margin, with Charleston carrying a 55% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Charleston enters at 26.6 points per game compared with 21.2 for Scott City with Chaffee. Scott City with Chaffee's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +14.5 for Charleston and +9.4 for Scott City with Chaffee. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Charleston owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Charleston has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 5.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.