TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Oak Park | Central (St. Joseph) |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| PF / GAME | 24.0 | 29.8 |
| PA / GAME | 27.4 | 25.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | -5.7 | +6.7 |
| SOS | -1.2 | -7.0 |
| POWER | -6.1 | +4.2 |
OAK PARK WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Oak Park finished the job, as Oak Park and Central (St. Joseph) finished 49-7. MOFO's pick of Central (St. Joseph) missed; the model had projected a 23-30 final.
The actual margin was 42 points versus MOFO's 6.2-point projection. That produced a 48.2-point margin error, with score errors of 25.6 for Oak Park and 22.6 for Central (St. Joseph).
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD CENTRAL (ST. JOSEPH)
MOFO leans toward Central (St. Joseph) because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 10.3-point power-rating advantage and projects a 6.2-point margin, with Central (St. Joseph) carrying a 69% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Central (St. Joseph) enters at 29.8 points per game compared with 24.0 for Oak Park. Central (St. Joseph) also allows 2.4 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -7.0 for Central (St. Joseph) and -1.2 for Oak Park. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Central (St. Joseph) owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Oak Park has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 10.3-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.