TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | East Prairie | Central (New Madrid County) |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| PF / GAME | 12.6 | 22.2 |
| PA / GAME | 28.8 | 39.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | -22.7 | -26.3 |
| SOS | +4.8 | +4.2 |
| POWER | -21.0 | -24.9 |
CENTRAL (NEW MADRID COUNTY) WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Central (New Madrid County) finished the job, as East Prairie and Central (New Madrid County) finished 0-38. MOFO's pick of East Prairie missed; the model had projected a 27-25 final.
The actual margin was 38 points versus MOFO's 1.6-point projection. That produced a 39.6-point margin error, with score errors of 26.6 for East Prairie and 13.0 for Central (New Madrid County).
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD EAST PRAIRIE
MOFO leans toward East Prairie because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 3.9-point power-rating advantage and projects a 1.6-point margin, with East Prairie carrying a 55% win probability.
Central (New Madrid County) actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. East Prairie also allows 11.0 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +4.8 for East Prairie and +4.2 for Central (New Madrid County). Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Central (New Madrid County) owns the stronger scoring profile.
02East Prairie has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 3.9-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.