TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Hogan Prep Academy Charter | Central (Kansas City) |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| PF / GAME | 24.7 | 22.6 |
| PA / GAME | 20.1 | 19.2 |
| AVG MARGIN | +8.3 | +5.7 |
| SOS | -11.3 | -7.5 |
| POWER | +4.3 | +3.0 |
CENTRAL (KANSAS CITY) WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Central (Kansas City) finished the job, as Hogan Prep Academy Charter and Central (Kansas City) finished 7-14. MOFO's pick of Hogan Prep Academy Charter missed; the model had projected a 22-21 final.
The actual margin was 7 points versus MOFO's 0.7-point projection. That produced a 7.7-point margin error, with score errors of 15.0 for Hogan Prep Academy Charter and 7.3 for Central (Kansas City).
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD HOGAN PREP ACADEMY CHARTER
MOFO leans toward Hogan Prep Academy Charter because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 1.3-point power-rating advantage and projects a 0.7-point margin, with Hogan Prep Academy Charter carrying a 52% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Hogan Prep Academy Charter enters at 24.7 points per game compared with 22.6 for Central (Kansas City). Central (Kansas City)'s defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at -11.3 for Hogan Prep Academy Charter and -7.5 for Central (Kansas City). Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Hogan Prep Academy Charter owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Central (Kansas City) has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 1.3-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.