TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Marshfield | Carl Junction |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| PF / GAME | 29.6 | 28.4 |
| PA / GAME | 25.8 | 25.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | +3.3 | +5.0 |
| SOS | -6.4 | +9.3 |
| POWER | +1.1 | +8.3 |
CARL JUNCTION WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Carl Junction finished the job, as Marshfield and Carl Junction finished 20-28. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 26-28 final.
The actual margin was 8 points versus MOFO's 1.9-point projection. That produced a 6.1-point margin error, with score errors of 6.2 for Marshfield and 0.1 for Carl Junction.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD CARL JUNCTION
MOFO leans toward Carl Junction because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 7.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 1.9-point margin, with Carl Junction carrying a 56% win probability.
Marshfield actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Carl Junction also allows 0.8 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +9.3 for Carl Junction and -6.4 for Marshfield. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Marshfield owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Carl Junction has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 7.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.