TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | St. Paul Lutheran (Concordia) | Braymer |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| PF / GAME | 21.8 | 25.0 |
| PA / GAME | 50.2 | 49.2 |
| AVG MARGIN | -28.7 | -33.3 |
| SOS | +18.5 | +14.1 |
| POWER | -22.2 | -28.4 |
ST. PAUL LUTHERAN (CONCORDIA) WRITES THE FINAL WORD
St. Paul Lutheran (Concordia) finished the job, as St. Paul Lutheran (Concordia) and Braymer finished 40-24. MOFO's pick of Braymer missed; the model had projected a 36-37 final.
The actual margin was 16 points versus MOFO's 0.6-point projection. That produced a 16.6-point margin error, with score errors of 3.8 for St. Paul Lutheran (Concordia) and 12.8 for Braymer.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD BRAYMER
MOFO leans toward Braymer because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 6.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 0.6-point margin, with Braymer carrying a 52% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Braymer enters at 25.0 points per game compared with 21.8 for St. Paul Lutheran (Concordia). Braymer also allows 1.0 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +14.1 for Braymer and +18.5 for St. Paul Lutheran (Concordia). Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Braymer owns the stronger scoring profile.
02St. Paul Lutheran (Concordia) has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 6.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.