TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | West Plains | Branson |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-0 | 2-1 |
| PF / GAME | 30.2 | 32.4 |
| PA / GAME | 19.0 | 24.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | +18.0 | +12.7 |
| SOS | -4.3 | -1.9 |
| POWER | +16.5 | +12.0 |
BRANSON WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Branson finished the job, as West Plains and Branson finished 14-45. MOFO's pick of West Plains missed; the model had projected a 28-25 final.
The actual margin was 31 points versus MOFO's 2.7-point projection. That produced a 33.7-point margin error, with score errors of 13.9 for West Plains and 19.8 for Branson.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD WEST PLAINS
MOFO leans toward West Plains because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 4.5-point power-rating advantage and projects a 2.7-point margin, with West Plains carrying a 59% win probability.
Branson actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. West Plains also allows 5.8 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -4.3 for West Plains and -1.9 for Branson. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Branson owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Branson has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 4.5-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.